Newspoll and Ipsos polls yet to see big impact from campaign
Posted On April 25, 2022
After a tumultuous first two weeks on the campaign trail, neither major party can point to a significant change in fortune among two of the nation’s leading opinion polls.
Ipsos had Labor’s primary vote down one point to 34 while the Coalition rose one to 32, as the Greens rose two points to 12 and the number of people planning to vote for other minor parties remained steady.
On a two-party preferred basis — based on 2019 preference distribution — the results were almost unchanged from the last poll carried out at the start of the month. Based on the latest survey, Labor would get 50 per cent of the vote, down one point, and the Coalition would receive 42 per cent, with the rest undecided.
That gap expanded to 55-45 in favour of Labor when respondents were forced to pick a side.
A few more of those polled were able to decide on a preferred prime minister this time around, with 40 per cent opting for Labor leader Anthony Albanese, up from 38, and 38 per cent choosing incumbent PM Scott Morrison, up from 37.
There was only one statistically significant change among the 2302 voters polled from Wednesday night to Saturday.
Following a fortnight that began with his failure to name the unemployment rate and ended with his COVID-19 infection, Mr Albanese’s disapproval rating increased three percentage points to 35 per cent.
Both leaders’ approval ratings increased by one point and Mr Morrison’s disapproval rating remained stable.
The poll’s margin of error is 2.2 per cent.
Newspoll also had Labor in the lead (53-47, same as the last two surveys) on a two-party preferred basis and a tight primary vote.
The Australian’s pollster of choice had the major parties taking a point each off minor parties in their primary vote, with Labor up to 37 per cent and the Coalition on 36. The Greens fell a point to 11 per cent and One Nation lost a point to 3 per cent.
Mr Morrison widened the gap as preferred prime minister with a two-points increase to 46 per cent, as his rival remained steady on 37 per cent.
This was despite a statistically significant shift in his net approval rating thanks to a one-point fall in approval, to 42 per cent, and a two-point increase in disapproval, to 54 per cent.
When politicians facing the public gets ugly
The fall came after a week in which the Morrison government was intensely criticised for its failure to stop the Solomon Islands signing a security deal that could allow a Chinese military presence in the Pacific nation, less than 1800km from the Queensland coast.
Mr Albanese’s fortunes were reversed with a one-point improvement in both measures for a 38 per cent approval rating and a 50 per cent disapproval rating.
The Newspoll surveyed 1538 voters from Wednesday to Saturday and has a margin of error of 2.9 per cent.